Housing Weaker, Manufacturing Softer, Jobs: Good not Great

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/29/2015)

– Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were  +1.0%, -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, and -0.2%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week -12.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, and -3.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week -7.6%. Previous weeks were -1.6%, -1.5%, -3.5%, -4.6%, -2.3%, +2.3%, -2.3%., +0.4%, +4.6%, +9.5%, -3.9%, -1.3%, and -1.3%.

While Purchase applications are +16.0% year-on-year the Housing Market is still weak.  Strength in the Housing Market is represented in Housing Starts.  Housing Starts are an economic driving force and are still at only 2/3rds the level they need to be.

ADP Private Jobs (May 2015)

– Private Jobs +201,000. Previous was +165,000.

ADP has offered a good forecast of the BLS report lately.  +201,000 is good but not great.

Trade Deficit (April 2015)

– Trade Deficit $40.9 billion.  Previous was $50.9 billion.

The difference is largely in a decline in imports.  There was a upward spike in imports in March as the West Coast dock strike ended.   While this is a plus for 2ndQ GDP this was a special

case and therefore no conclusions should be drawn regarding the longer term economy.

 
PMI Services Index (May 2015)

– Level   56.2. Previous was 57.4.

Lower but still pointing to growth.

 
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (May 2015)

– Composite Index  55.7. Previous was 57.8

While still growing, this is the slowest growth rate since April 2014.