THE BASIS POINT

Jobless Claims Up But Sub-400k (and rest of today’s stats)

Initial Jobless Claims
-393,000 for week ended November 19
-Up 2000 from previous week’s revised 391,000 (was 388k)
-4-week moving average was 394,250, down 3,250
-Weekly and 4-week both up but still holding under 400k mark under which job market is considered to be improving

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ending 11/18)
-Purchase Index, Week/Week 8.2%
-Refinance Index, Week/Week -4.0%
-Composite Index, Week/Week -1.2%
-Week/week data blurred by Veteran’s Day the previous week.

Durable Goods Orders
-New Orders, Month/Month -0.7%
-New Orders, Year/Year 7.5%
-Ex-transportation, Month/Month 0.7%
-Ex-transportation, Year/Year 11.7%
-This data is moderately weak

Personal Income/Outlays (October)
-Personal Income, Month/Month +0.4%
-Personal Income, Year/Year change +3.9%
-Consumer Spending, Month/Month change +0.1%
-Consumer Spending, Year/Year change +4.7%
-Core PCE price index, Month/Month +0.1%
-Core PCE price index, Year/Year +1.7%
-PCE is a consumer inflation index, and Fed’s preferred inflation measure
-This data shows the 99% doing better than in September when their income failed to keep pace with inflation. The long-term story is one of decreasing real wages.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumer Sentiment, a measure of predisposition to spend, was 64.1 for November