THE BASIS POINT

Retail Sales Moderately Better. Plus PPI & Empire Manufacturing

Producer Price Index (December 2012)
– PPI core (less food & energy) – Month/Month 0.1%
– PPI core (less food & energy) – Year/Year 2.0% PPI
– PPI (overall) – Month/Month -0.2%
– PPI (overall) – Year/Year 1.3%
– Inflation at the wholesale level remains restrained.

Retail Sales (December 2012)
– Retail Sales – Month/Month  +0.5%
– Retail Sales less autos – Month/Month  0.3%
– Less Autos & Gas – Month/Month 0.6%.
– Note that Retail Sales data as reported by the Census Bureau is seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.

Chain Store Sales (week ended 1/12/2013)
– ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Week/Week -0.6% Store Sales – Year/Year 3.3%
– Redbook Store Sales Year/Year +1.9%.  Previous was 2.1%.
– I would rate the collective retail data as moderately better indicating a continued if slow recovery.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (January 2013)
– General Business Conditions Index   -7.8. Previous was -8.10.
– This survey Index by the New York Fed marks 6 consecutive months of contraction.
– Zero is dividing line between expansion and contraction