Existing Home Sales: – May: 4.81 Million (annualized) – May Month/Month: -3.8 %, a 6mo low – May Year/Year: -15.3 % – Home Sales remain weak: 9.3mo of supply on market excluding pre-foreclosures. Retail Sales: – Redbook Year/Year +4.2% – ICSC-Goldman week/week -0.7%. Year/Year +2.2% FOMC meeting starts today. I suppose that the task at
Retail Sales
Retail sales dropped 0.2% in May, the first drop in 11 months, but economists were expecting a 0.4% to 0.5% drop so stocks are rallying on the news plus some favorable earnings today (S&P 500 +16 to 1288). Meanwhile rates are up as mortgage bonds sell sharply (FNMA 4% coupon -62 basis points) on inflation
Retail sales dropped 0.2% in May, the first drop in 11 months, but economists were expecting a 0.4% to 0.5% drop so stocks are rallying on the news plus some favorable earnings today (S&P 500 +16 to 1288). Meanwhile rates are up as mortgage bonds sell sharply (FNMA 4% coupon -62 basis points) on inflation
Inflation: PPI core and overall Month/Month were +0.2% for May PPI core Year/Year was +2.1% PPI overall Year/Year was +7.0% – a reminder of how large the swings in food and energy have been. Retail Sales: Retail Sales (overall) Month/Month was -0.2% Retail Sales (less autos) Month/Month was +0.3% Today’s data is market neutral. The
Inflation: PPI core and overall Month/Month were +0.2% for May PPI core Year/Year was +2.1% PPI overall Year/Year was +7.0% – a reminder of how large the swings in food and energy have been. Retail Sales: Retail Sales (overall) Month/Month was -0.2% Retail Sales (less autos) Month/Month was +0.3% Today’s data is market neutral. The
After a big bond rally yesterday that helped rates by about .125%, mortgage bond markets are flat today as decent March retail sales and a not-so-good $21b 10yr Treasury note auction are canceling each other out. Stocks are down slightly with S&P -2.5 and Dow -16.7. [UPDATE: Good rate news: FNMA 30yr 4% coupon rallies
Yesterday I mentioned FHA mortgage insurance increases coming this Monday, and had the following explanation of private mortgage insurance, which was then clarified (also below) by an account rep from a big mortgage insurance provider. “Usually MI covers mortgage payments for periods of between 12 months and 5 years, though terms between three and five
As predicted, rates ended last week even after big volatility caused +/-.3% intraday rate swings. Following the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami, mortgage bonds surprisingly weren’t Friday’s safety buy and instead sold (rates up) for four main reasons: (1) profit taking after bonds rallied huge Thursday (rates down) on a very successful 30yr Treasury auction,
Below are snapshots (with links) of five big data points markets are trading on today. U.S. rate markets—aka mortgage bond markets—are taking four of them as non-threatening: flat U.S. retail sales, weak Eurozone economic growth, less-than-expected Chinese inflation, and despite higher UK inflation, markets are shrugging it off. For now, markets are also ignoring the
After a better rate day yesterday due mostly to a well-received 30yr bond auction, rates are even today after consumer inflation, retail sales, consumer confidence, and bank earnings figures. Following yesterday’s slightly hotter than expected business inflation report, today’s consumer inflation report confirms a relatively flat inflation environment—which helps keeps rates low. December’s consumer inflation
Hotter than expected November business inflation and retail sales are causing a massive 70 basis point mortgage bond selloff this morning, and rates rise when bond prices drop in a selloff. If this selloff holds, 30yr fixed rates will settle at 5%. We’ll get the Fed’s latest views on economic growth, inflation and rate policy
BusinessInsider just posted a good roundup of Black Friday holiday shopping stats from David Bodamer, chief editor since 2006 of Retail Traffic, a retail real estate trade magazine. Below are his quick summaries of data from core reports along with links to original reports. Bodamer’s full post also has highlights from each report and some
Stampeding shoppers woken by a ‘coked up rooster’ go nuts for post-Thanksgiving bargains. Hey, whatever helps the economy…
Today’s October retail sales numbers are again positive and rates continue last week’s up trend as a result. GDP forecasts depend on an accelerating pace of consumer spending, thus the importance of today’s retail sales number which followed September’s .7% increase. October Retail Sales were up 1.2%, ex-auto it was +.4%. Meanwhile the October Empire
Today’s October retail sales numbers are again positive and rates continue last week’s up trend as a result. GDP forecasts depend on an accelerating pace of consumer spending, thus the importance of today’s retail sales number which followed September’s .7% increase. October Retail Sales were up 1.2%, ex-auto it was +.4%. Meanwhile the October Empire
Rates are higher to end the week despite tame inflation readings and slightly better retail sales. The US Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy, was nearly flat at 0.1% in September and 1.1% year-over-year through September. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” CPI for
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