Weak Retail May Indicate Soft GDP Growth

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/8/2014)

– New Claims 339,000. Previous was 331,000

– 4-week Moving Average.  336,750. Previous was 333,250.

This data indicates a flat jobs market.

Retail Sales  (January 2014)

– Retail Sales Month/Month  -0.4%. Previous was -0.1%

– Retail Sales less autos Month/Month +0.0%. Previous was +0.3%

– Less Autos & Gas Month/Month -0.2%. Previous was +0.1%.

This is a GDP component and it is weak.  Lowering December 2013 from +0.2% to -0.1% should negatively impact the next revision of 4thQ2023 GDP but the item below will partially offset that.

Business Inventories (December 2013)

– Inventories Month/Month +0.5%. Previous was +0.4%.

Inventories expanding while retail sales are contracting will lower Business Inventories in the near future or, at least, slow its growth.