Weakness in Housing and Supply Side
Pending Home Sales (February 2012)
– Pending Sales of Existing Homes level fell from 97.0 to 96.5
– Up 0.5% month/month, up 9.2% year/year
– This is an NAR index in which level of 100 is considered healthy
– It shows new contracts on homes expected to close within 60 days
– Bloomberg spins this as “Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Hold Near Two-Year High.” Interesting. Last Friday’s New Home Sales was also disappointing. The housing market still faces uncertainty. Uncertainty stems from: a prolonged period of foreclosures which were delayed, uncertainty about income security due to lack of real strength in the jobs market and significantly tougher mortgage qualifying standards.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February 2012)
– Level = -.09. Previous was +0.33
Dallas Fed Manufacturing
– Business Activity Index was 10.8 down from previous 17.8.
– Both of these supply side surveys support the notion that wholesale got ahead of retail and had to slow.