What’s actually revolutionary in this golden age of hype?

A few Points on what I’m working on and thinking about today…

HISTORY OF LENDER AI

– But seriously, how close are we to a fully digital mortgage?

– This is the title of a presentation to about 800 people I’m doing with Fannie Mae and Blend tomorrow.

– The first automated mortgage approval software launched 26 years ago.

– But it was all paper income and asset docs being keyed in.

– And we know AI is only as good as the data going in.

– Then deregulation made the data going in even worse because there was no data going in!

– No income, no asset (aka NINAs) and stated income, stated asset (aka SISAs) were all the rage.

– There used to be raging debates about how a SISA was better than a NINA

– Because at least a SISA had income figures entered into the loan approval AI machines whereas a NINA had no income or asset figures even entered.

– This actually happened.

– Then so did the crisis when all those loans made without income/asset verification turned out to be bad.

– That and the fact that derivative securities created based off the supposed strength of those loans permeated the global financial system.

– Then came “Ability To Repay” re-regulation that required lenders to use income and asset documentation to approve loans.

– Imagine that!

– Then came this most recent 6 year era where direct connections to your your payroll provider, tax returns, and bank statements ensures data going into loan approval machines is correct.

– It’s almost been 30 years in all.

– And it’ll take a few more years before this is fully mainstream.

– So by the time a mortgage is fully digital, it will have taken the time it takes to pay off a mortgage.

– Your process will be easier (already is) and the the system will be safer because of it.

WHAT’S REVOLUTIONARY IN THE AGE OF HYPE?

Domesticated Animals by Queens of The Stone Age is in heavy rotation because of this lyric:

– “A revolution is one spin round.”

– Been mulling this since everything is a revolution in this golden age of startup/disruption hype.

– We’re starting a revolution.

– Our software is revolutionary.

– Let’s revolutionize our industry.

– Yet this lyric reminds us what the dictionary says: a revolution is one rotation.

– So it all depends on the scale of your thinking.

– One turn of the earth?

– One time around the sun?

– 26 times around the sun, like the AI journey above?

– Sticking with something for a long time is how you make a revolution.

– Bill Gates famously said people overestimate what they can do in in a year and underestimate what they can do in 10 years.

– So I listen to Queens, ponder Gates, and try to find my place in the golden age.