Private Jobs Post Slowest Gain in 14 Months.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/27/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +6.0%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, and +1.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, and -12.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week +4.6%. Previous weeks were  +9.5%, -3.9%, -1.3%, -1.3%, +0.1%, -8.0%. -13.2%, -9.0%, +1.3%, -3.2%, +14.2%, +49.1%, and -9.1%.

Purchase applications are a leading indicator of Home Sales so the 2 weeks in a row gain may signal recovery in what has been a weak housing sector.



ADP  Private Jobs (March 2014)

- Private Sector Jobs +189,000. Previous was +214,000.

This is weaker than expectation and portends a weak BLS Employment Situation Report this Friday.  This is the lowest level of ADP private jobs gains in 14 months.

 

PMI Manufacturing Index

- Level  55.7. Previous was 55.1.



ISM Manufacturing Index (March 2015)

- ISM  Manufacturing Index 51.5. Previous was 52.9.

 

Construction Spending  (February 2015)

- Construction Spending month/month -0.1%. Previous was -1.7%.
- Construction Spending year/year +2.1%. Previous was +1.4%.

I would not draw any conclusions from this data.  February has reduced public construction spending and bad weather in some parts of the country.
 

Home Prices up.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/28/2015) – Store Sales year/year  +3.0%. Previous was +2.8%   S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2015) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted, month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.9% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted, month/month  +0.0%.  Previous was +0.1% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year  +4.6%.  Previous was +4.4%.   Chicago PMI […]

 

Pending Home Sales up.

Personal Income and Outlays (February 2015) – Personal Income month/month  +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%. – Consumer Spending month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.2%. – PCE Price Index month/month  +0.2%. Previous was -0.4%. – Core PCE price index month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%. – Personal Income year/year +4.5%. Previous was +4.7%. – Consumer Spending year/year +3.3%. Previous […]

 

4thQ GDP +2.2%

GDP 4thQ 2014  – Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.2%. Previous was +2.2%. – GDP price index seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%. This is soft and while GDP is supposed to be the best indicator as to the health of the economy the numbers reports are greatly affected by the estimates correcting […]

 

Jobs Market Healthy. Manufacturing Softer.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/21/2015)   – New Claims seasonally adjusted 282,000. Previous was 291,000 – New Claims unadjusted totaled 247,256  a decrease of 12,986 from previous – 4-week Moving Average -297,000. Previous was 304,750   PMI Services Flash (March 2015)   – Level  58.6. Previous was 57.0. Unlike the manufacturing sector, the service […]

 

Mortgage Applications up. Durable Goods down.

March 25, 2015 MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/20/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, and -7.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +12.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, and +1.0%. – Composite Index […]

 

Core Inflation Contained.

Consumer Price Index  (February 2015) – CPI month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.7% – CPI year/year -0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month  +0.2 %. Previous was +0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.6%. Previous was  +1.7%. The headline number reflects the rise in the price of gasoline. […]

 

Signs of Miserable 1stQ2025 GDP?

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index  (February 2015) – Level  -0.11. Previous was -.10 – 3 Month Moving Average  -0.08. Previous was +.26. This show the economy having a miserable 1st couple of months. Existing Home Sales  (February 2015) – Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 4,880,000. Previous was 4,820,000 This is an improvement from […]

 

Jobs Healthy. Rest of Economy Flat.

Jobless Claims (week ended 3/14/2015)   – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 291,000. Previous was 290,000 – New Claims unadjusted were 259,671  a decrease of 18,254 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average 304,750. Previous was 302,500. These numbers continue to show a healthy jobs market.   Current Account (4thQ2014)   – Current Account Deficit […]

 

What Yellen Should Say.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/13/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, and +1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, and +0.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -3.9%. Previous […]

 
 
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