Fundamentals Indicate Sluggish Growth.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/16/2015)

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 274,000. Previous was 264,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 242,794 a decrease of 88 from previous.
- 4-week Moving Average   266,250. Previous was 261,750

Layoffs remain low but represent less that 20% of the dynamics of the entire Jobs Market.



Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (April 2015)

- Index Level -0.15. Previous was -0.36.

Folks who have been thinking that the weakness of the prior months  would lead to a gain in April (expectation was +0.10) were mistaken.

 

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (May 2015)

- Index Level 53.8. Previous was 54.2.

Again less that expected.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey (May 2015)

- General Business Conditions Index  6.7. Previous was 7.5.

This is a regional survey index.

 

Existing Home Sales (April 2015)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 5,040,000. Previous was 5,210,000.

This is seriously disappointing.  We had that nice uptick in Housing Starts reported earlier this week but that may have simply been a produce of bad weather delaying Starts.

 

Leading Indicators (April 2015)

- LEI +0.7%. Previous was +0.4%.

The gain in LEI may be another product of the weather produced blip in Housing Starts. The analysis from The Conference Board which produces this Index suggested as much.
 

Mortgages, Who Needs Them?

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/15/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were  -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, and -7.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +0.3%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, and +1.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.5%. Previous […]

 

Housing Starts up Nicely but…

Housing Starts (April 2015)   – Housing Starts in units, Seasonally Adjusted, annualized  1,135,000 – Permits in units, Seasonally Adjusted, annualized 1,143,000 This is an increase of 20.2% from February.  Single-family Starts were 733,000 a 16.7% increase from the previous month. This is the best Housing Starts data we have seen in a long time.  […]

 

Housing Still Soft.

Housing Market Index (May 2015)   – Index 54. Previous was 56.   This is a survey index of members of the  National Association of Home Builders.  It asks their view of both the overall economy as well as housing market conditions. The ultimate measure of the health of the market is Housing Starts. The fact is that […]

 

Initial Claims & Inflation Remain Low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/9/2015) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 264,000. Previous was 265,000. – New Claims totaled 242,640  an increase of 6,219  previous – 4-week Moving Average 271,750. Previous was 279,500. Continuing Jobless Claims are at a 15-year low.  Yet, per last week’s BLS Employment Situation Report were are seeing only mediocre gains […]

 

Signs of Weak GDP.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/8/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were  +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, and -7.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -6.0% Previous weeks were -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, and -16.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -3.5%. Previous […]

 

More Weakness in Jobs Market?

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 5/9/2015) – Store Sales year/year  +2.1%. Previous was +1.6%   NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (April 2015) – level  96.9. Previous was  95.2 This is a survey index.   JOLTS (March 2015) – Job Openings Job Openings  4,994,000. Previous was  5,133,000. The JOLTS report is the Labor Department’s Job […]

 

Fed’s Labor Market Index Weakens.

Labor Market Conditions Index (April 2015)   – Index -1.9.  Previous was down to -1.8. This is a broad measure of the health of the labor market as measured by the Federal Reserve and it indicates the weakness of the labor market.  This is a much better indicator of the job market’s health than the […]

 

April BLS: Markets Embrace Mediocrity.

BLS Employment Situation Report (April 2015)   – Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  223,000. Previous revised down to +85,000. – Unemployment Rate 5.4%. Previous was 5.5%. The Unemployment Rate is at the lowest level since May 2008. – Participation Rate 62.8%. Previous was 62.7% – Average Hourly Earnings month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.2% – Average Workweek  34.5 […]

 

Jobs Prelude Mixed.

Challenger Job-Cut Report (April 2015) – Announced Layoffs  61,582. Previous was 36,594. Both the spike and now the drop in jobs are significantly affected by the decline in operating oil wells.  On May 1 there were 905 operating oil rigs in the U.S.  A year before there were 1,854.  With oil prices having moved up […]

 
 
Processing your request...

 

 

Professional Basis Login

 

|

Retrieve Your Login Information

Please enter the email address associated with your Professional Basis account. Your login information will be sent at that address.

|