Fundamentals a bit Soft.

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 2/28/2015)

 

- New Claims seasonally adjusted  320,000. Previous was 313,000
- New Claims unadjusted 310,497  an increase of 29,858 from previous .
- 4-week Moving Average  304,750. Previous was 294,500

 

Challenger Job-Cut Report (February 2015)

 

- Announced Layoffs 50,579. Previous was 53,041

For 3 years this number has been more or less flat but Initial Jobless Claims have steadily declined.  I have no idea what the implication is but clearly the correlation had diminished.

 
Productivity and Costs (4thQ2014)

 

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized -2.2%. Previous was +3.9%
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized  +4.1%. Previous was -1.0%.

This data is hard to analyze because previous was revised from -1.8% to +3.9%.  Productivity is GDP/hour worked.

 

Gallup US Payroll to Population  (February 2015)


- level  43.9. Previous was 44.1.

This is the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older who are employed by an employer for at least 30 hours per week.

 

Factory Orders  (January 2015)

- Factory Orders month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -3.5%
 

Manufacturing up, Mortgage Applications Weak

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/20/2014)   – Purchase Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -10.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, and -13%. – Composite Index Week/Week +0.1%. […]

 

Personal Income up, Spending down.

Personal Income and Outlays  (January 2015)   Personal Income month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.3% Consumer Spending month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -0.3% PCE Price Index month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -0.2% Core PCE price index month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.0% Personal Income year/year   +4.6%. Previous was +4.8% Consumer Spending year/year  +3.6%. Previous was +3.6% PCE Price Index […]

 

Weak GDP Growth just Got Weaker.

GDP (4th Q2014) – Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.2%. Previous estimate was +2.6% – GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.1%. Previous estimate was +0.0%. This is weak.  We should be targeting 4% annual growth.   Chicago PMI (February 2015) – Business Barometer Index  45.8. Previous was 59.4. This is the lowest […]

 

No Surprises in Fundamentals.

Consumer Price Index (January 2015) – CPI month/month -0.7%. Previous was -0.3%. – CPI year/year   -0.2 %. Previous was +0.7% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2 %. Previous was +0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.6 %. Previous was +1.6%. No surprises here.  Core inflation is modest and lower […]

 

Housing Flat.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/20/2014)   – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -10.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, and -13%. – Composite Index Week/Week -3.5%. Previous weeks […]

 

Weak Data except for Home Prices

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/21/2015) – Store Sales year/year +2.8%. Previous was +3.2%   S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (December 2014) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.8% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month   +0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year   +4.5%. Previous was +4.3% Prices are increasing […]

 

Young People not Buying Homes.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (January 2015) – Level  +0.13. Previous was -0.07 – 3 Month Moving Average +0.33. Previous was +0.34 This index is national and is a weighted average of 85 different pieces of data.  January was strong in comparison with a weak December.   Existing Home Sales (January 2015) – Existing […]

 

Manufacturing Inches up.

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (February 2015) – Level  54.3. Previous was 53.7.

 

Low GDP Growth Delays Fed Rate Increases.

Initial Jobless Claims – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 283,000. Previous was 290,000 – New Claims unadjusted were 278,986,  a decrease of 45,213 (or -13.9%) from previous – 4-week Moving Average    283,000. Previous was 289,750   Leading Indicators (January 2015)   – LEI (month/month) was +0.2%. Previous was +0.4% Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey (February 2015)   […]

 
 
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