Purchase Mortgage Applications Indicate Flat Housing.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/22/2015)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were  -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, and +5.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, and -0.2%.

- Composite Index Week/Week -1.6%. Previous weeks were -1.5%, -3.5%, -4.6%, -2.3%, +2.3%, -2.3%., +0.4%, +4.6%, +9.5%, -3.9%, -1.3%, -1.3%, and +0.1%.

Comments about the weakness in housing and, for example, Purchase Mortgage Application miss the point of what is happening.  Housing is weak because of stagnant middle-class income.

Changes in Refinance applications are highly rate dependent. Changes in Purchase applications at these rates are not.

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 5/23/2015)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.8%.
 

Fundamentals Mixed with no Clear Signs.

Durable Goods Orders (April 2015) – New Orders month/month  -0.5%. Previous was +5.1%. – Ex-transportation month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.6%. DGO have been weak lately.  The gains in ex-trans for 2 months is a sign of hope.   FHFA House Price Index (March 2015) – month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.6%. – year/year  +5.2%. Previous was […]

 

Fundamentals Indicate Sluggish Growth.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/16/2015) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 274,000. Previous was 264,000 – New Claims unadjusted, totaled 242,794 a decrease of 88 from previous. – 4-week Moving Average   266,250. Previous was 261,750 Layoffs remain low but represent less that 20% of the dynamics of the entire Jobs Market. Chicago Federal Reserve National […]

 

Mortgages, Who Needs Them?

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/15/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were  -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, and -7.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +0.3%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, and +1.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.5%. Previous […]

 

Housing Starts up Nicely but…

Housing Starts (April 2015)   – Housing Starts in units, Seasonally Adjusted, annualized  1,135,000 – Permits in units, Seasonally Adjusted, annualized 1,143,000 This is an increase of 20.2% from February.  Single-family Starts were 733,000 a 16.7% increase from the previous month. This is the best Housing Starts data we have seen in a long time.  […]

 

Housing Still Soft.

Housing Market Index (May 2015)   – Index 54. Previous was 56.   This is a survey index of members of the  National Association of Home Builders.  It asks their view of both the overall economy as well as housing market conditions. The ultimate measure of the health of the market is Housing Starts. The fact is that […]

 

Initial Claims & Inflation Remain Low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/9/2015) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 264,000. Previous was 265,000. – New Claims totaled 242,640  an increase of 6,219  previous – 4-week Moving Average 271,750. Previous was 279,500. Continuing Jobless Claims are at a 15-year low.  Yet, per last week’s BLS Employment Situation Report were are seeing only mediocre gains […]

 

Signs of Weak GDP.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/8/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were  +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, and -7.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -6.0% Previous weeks were -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, and -16.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -3.5%. Previous […]

 

More Weakness in Jobs Market?

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 5/9/2015) – Store Sales year/year  +2.1%. Previous was +1.6%   NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (April 2015) – level  96.9. Previous was  95.2 This is a survey index.   JOLTS (March 2015) – Job Openings Job Openings  4,994,000. Previous was  5,133,000. The JOLTS report is the Labor Department’s Job […]

 

Fed’s Labor Market Index Weakens.

Labor Market Conditions Index (April 2015)   – Index -1.9.  Previous was down to -1.8. This is a broad measure of the health of the labor market as measured by the Federal Reserve and it indicates the weakness of the labor market.  This is a much better indicator of the job market’s health than the […]

 
 
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