3 Days Worth of Fundamentals.

MBA Purchase Applications (week ended 11/21/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -10.0%. Previous weeks were +12.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, +0.0%, -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, and -2.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, -11.0% -6.0%, -7.0%, +23.0%, +11.0%, +5.0%, -0.3%, -7.0%, +10.0%, and -11.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week -4.3%. Previous weeks were +4.9%, -0.9%, -2.6%, -6.6%, +11.6%, -5.6%, +3.8%, -0.2%, -4.1%, +7.9%, and -7.2%.

Year-on-year Purchase Applications are -10.0%.

The previous week's +12.0% was an anomaly not a trend. The downward year-to-year trend is probably due to a combination of tightened lending standards mandated by CFPB and the fact that prices have gone up making bargains much harder to find.

 
Durable Goods Orders (October 2014)

- New Orders month/month +0.4%. Previous was -1.3%.
- New Orders year/year +5.5%. Previous was +5.5%
- Ex-transportation month/month  -0.9%. Previous was -0.2%
- Ex-transportation year/year  +6.4%. Previous was  +7.8%.

Jobless Claims (week ended 11/22/1014)

- New Claims (Seasonally adjusted)  313,000. Previous was 292,000
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 355,887 an increase of 69,772 from the previous week
- 4-week Moving Average (Seasonally adjusted)  294,000.

This is the highest Initial Claims have been since early September.  This is still a low level.


Personal Income and Outlays (October 2014)


- Personal Income month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%.
- Consumer Spending month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.0%.
- PCE Price Index month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.1%.
- Core PCE price index month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%.
- Personal Income year/year  +4.1%. Previous was +3.7%.
- Consumer Spending year/year +3.6%. Previous was +3.8%.
- PCE Price Index year/year  +1.4%. Previous was +1.4%.
- Core PCE price index year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.5%.

Looks like a slightly better month for both income and spending.

 
Chicago PMI November 2014)
  

- Business Barometer Index  60.8. Previous was 66.2%.

This is a survey index of manufacturing in the Chicago region.  While the Index fell it should be noted that the previous was the year's high.

 
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November 2014)

- Sentiment Index  88.8. Previous was 89.4.

Since this is supposed to measure consumer spending in the new future and Christmas shopping season is about to begin this gets a serious look from equity buyers.
 

New Home Sales (October 2014)
New Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 458,000. Previous was 455,000.

 

Pending Home Sales Index (October 2014)

Pending Home Sales Index -104.1. Previous was 105.0
Pending Home Sales Index -1.1%. Previous was +0.3%
 

GDP +3.9%

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 11/22/2014) – Store Sales week/week +2.2%. Previous was +0.2% – Store Sales year/year +1.7%. Previous was +2.2%.   Redbook Store Sales (week ended 11/22/2014)   – Store Sales year/year +4.2%. Previous was +3.9%. GDP (3rdQ2014) – Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate +3.9%. Previous was +3.5% – GDP price […]

 

Economic Growth Slightly Softer.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (October 2014) – Level  +0.14. Previous was +.29 – 3 Month Moving Average  -0.01. Previous was +.12.   PMI Services Flash (November 2014) – Level  56.3. Previous was 57.3 Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (November 2014) – Business Activity Index   10.5. Previous was  10.5 – Production Index   6.0. Previous […]

 

Inflation Remains well Contained.

Consumer Price Index (October 2014) – CPI month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI year/year +1.7%. Previous was  +1.7% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.8%. Previous was +1.7%.   Jobless Claims (week ended 11/15/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  291,000. […]

 

Housing Starts down. Purchase Applications Spike.

MBA Purchase Applications (week ended 11/14/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +12.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, +0.0%, -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, and +3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -6.0%. Previous weeks were -11.0% -6.0%, -7.0%, +23.0%, +11.0%, +5.0%, -0.3%, -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, and +1.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +4.9%. Previous weeks were […]

 

Wholesale Prices up Slightly.

PPI-FD (October 2014) – PPI-FD month/month +0.2%. Previous was -0.1% – PPI-FD year/year   +1.5%. Previous was +1.6% – PPI-FD core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.0% – PPI-FD core (less food & energy)   +1.7%. Previous was +1.8% – PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year  +1.6%. Previous was +1.7% – PPI-FD […]

 

Manufacturing up Slightly.

Industrial Production  (October 2014) – Production month/month  -0.1%. Previous was +0.8% – Capacity Utilization Rate  78.9%. Previous was 79.2% – Manufacturing month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%. With IP net down and Manufacturing up this is net neutral.  IP includes utility production which is weather dependent.   Empire State Manufacturing Survey (November 2014) – General Business […]

 

Import/Export Prices Continue Lower.

Retail Sales (October 2014) – Retail Sales month/month  +0.3%. Previous -0.3%. – Retail Sales less autos  month/month +0.3%. Previous  -0.2%. – Less Autos & Gas  month/month -0.6%. Previous +0.1%. Import and Export Prices (October 2014) – Export Prices month/month  -1.0%. Previous was -0.4% – Export Prices year/year  -0.8%. Previous was -0.2%. – Import Prices month/month […]

 

Jobs Market Still Healthy.

Jobless Claims (week ended 11/8/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  290,000. Previous was 278,000 – New Claims unadjusted, totaled 306,889 an increase of 39,968 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average 285,000. Previous was 279,000. Initial Claims are still low. JOLTS (September 2014) – Job Openings  4,735,000. Previous was 4,853,000. Despite the month/month downturn […]

 

Purchase Applications -11.0% from a Year ago.

MBA Purchase Applications (week ended 11/7/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, +0.0%, -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, and -0.4%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -1100%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, -7.0%, +23.0%, +11.0%, +5.0%, -0.3%, -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, and +3.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -0.9%. Previous weeks were […]

 
 
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