GDP +1.8% (annualized) for 1st Half of 2014.

2ndQ2014 GDP

- Real (inflation adjusted) GDP quarter/quarter +4.0%.  Previous was revised to -2.1%.

If we chain those, we have 1.8% annualized growth for the first 6 months of 2014.  For 2011–2013, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.0%; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 2.2%.  To me GDP growth is still too low.   It is helpful to realize that this first estimate of 2ndQ2014 GDP is a "shot in the dark." There are only 2 of 3 months of data for Exports, Imports and Inventory spending.

Real personal consumption expenditures were +2.5%.

- GDP deflator +2.0%.  Previous was +1.3%.  This is a measure of inflation where each component is weighted according to its contribution to GDP.

ADP Private Jobs (July 2014)

- Private Jobs +218,000. Previous was +281,000.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/25/2014)  

- Purchase Index Week/Week +0.2%. Previous weeks were +0.3%, -8.0%, +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%. -5.2%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, and +9.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -0.1%, +0.4%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -13.0%, +11.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, and +7.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week -2.2%. Previous weeks were  +2.4%, -3.6%, +1.9%, -0.2%, -1.0%, -9.2%, +10.3%, -3.1%, -1.2%, +0.9%, and +3.6%.

Either the housing market is suffering or folks are so wealthy that they do not need mortgages.

 
 

Flatter Home Prices.

There is a lot happening this week:  FOMC meeting starts today, 2ndQ2014 GDP tomorrow, BLS Employment Situation Report Friday. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 7/26/2014) – Store Sales week/week +0.2%.  Previous was -0.4% – Store Sales year/year +4.6%. Previous was +2.8%. Redbook Store Sales (week ended 7/26/2014) – Store Sales year/year +3.0%. Previous was +3.7% […]

 

Pending Sales of Existing Homes down.

PMI Services Flash  (July 2014) – Index level 61.0.  Previous was 61.2. Lower but still strong.   Pending Home Sales Index  (June 2014) – Pending Home Sales Index   102.7. Previous was 103.8. This is a leading index generated by The National Association of Realtors pertaining to Existing Home Sales.   Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  […]

 

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve gets a lot of attention but folks do not always discuss what all that it does and what it should do. The general discussion is that the Federal Reserve has a dual-mandate: keep inflation low and keep unemployment low. This misses what the Fed really does. The most important role of the […]

 

Durable Goods Orders Recover.

Durable Goods Orders (June 2014) – New Orders month/month +0.7%. Previous was -1.0% – Ex-transportation month/month  +0.8%. Previous was -0.1%

 

Purchase applcations up slightly but…

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/18/2014)   – Purchase Index Week/Week +0.3%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%. -5.2%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, and -4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -0.1%, +0.4%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -13.0%, +11.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +7.0%, and +2.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.4%. Previous weeks […]

 

A Mixed bag of Fundamentals.

Consumer Price Index (June 2014) – CPI month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.4% – CPI year/year +2.1%. Previous was +2.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.3% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.9%. Previous was 1.9%. This shows contained inflation. It remains to be seem what the net […]

 

Chicago Fed Manufacturing: Growing but Slower.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index  (June 2014) – Index level 0.12.  Previous was 0.21 – 3 Month Moving Average 0.13. Previous was 0.19. The economy is still growth but at a slower pace.  As repeated here weekly too little attention had been paid lately as to just how poor economic growth in the U.S. […]

 

Is the Supply Side Failing?

Is the Supply Side Failing? A question we should be seeking the answer to is “Why has economic growth been so puny lately?” We had the Great Recession which was caused by the government’s insistence that home loan lenders lower their lending standards so that more folks could afford to own a home. Banks and […]

 

Consumer Sentiment, Leading Indicators down.

Leading Indicators (June 2014) – Leading Indicators month/month +0.3%.  Previous was +0.7%. This is a rehash of 10 other pieces of data and has, for some time, merely reflected the Federal Reserve policy of increasing money supply and keeping rates low. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July 2014) – Consumer Sentiment 81.3.  Previous was 82.5. […]

 
 
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