Housing Starts down.

Housing Starts (August 2014)

- Housing Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 956,000. Previous was 1,117,000

- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 998,000. Previous was 1,057,000.

This indicates that the momentum housing was gaining is not sustaining.  The underlying fact is that not enough people are getting jobs with income high enough to support homeownership.

To keep pace with population growth and assuming that the number of people per household remains constant we should have 1,500,000 Starts per year.

Housing is also restrained by the tougher mortgage lending standards imposed by CFPB.  No one in D.C. seems to yet recognized that regulation almost always comes with adverse consequences.

 

Jobless Claims (week ended 9/13/2014)

- New Claims 280,000. Previous was 316,000

- 4-week Moving Average 299,500. Previous was 394,250.

This part of the jobs market indicates health but, as I discuss in my monthly analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report, layoffs are only about 10% of the dynamics of the jobs market.

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey   (September 2014)

- General Business Conditions 22.5. Previous was 28.00.
 

No Inflation.

Consumer Price Index (August 2014) – CPI month/month (overall) -0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI year/year (overall)  +1.7%. Previous was +2.0% – CPI month/month core (less food & energy)  +0.0%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI year/year core (less food & energy) +1.7%. Previous was +1.9%. This absence of any effect on inflation generated from expanded […]

 

Wholesale Inflation Contained.

PPI-FD  (August 2014) – PPI-FD (overall) month/month  +0.0%. Previous was +0.1% – PPI-FD year/year +1.8%. Previous was +1.7% – PPI-FD core (less food & energy) month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.2% – PPI-FD core (less food & energy) year/year  1.6 %   1.6 % – PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month 0.2 %   0.2 % […]

 

Industrial Production could Reflect Retooloing.

Industrial Production (August 2014) – Production month/month  -0.1%. Previous was revised down to +0.2% – Capacity Utilization Rate  78.8%. Previous was 79.3% – Manufacturing month/month  -0.4%. Previous was revised down to +0.7%. At this time of the year these numbers are less meaningful because they may only reflect the schedules of the retooling of automobile […]

 

GDP Components up. Inflation Contained.

Retail Sales (August 2014) – Retail Sales month/month +0.6%. Previous was revised up from +0.0% to +0.3% – Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.3%. Previous was revised up from +0.1% to +0.3% – Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.5%.  Previous was revised up from +0.1% to +0.3%. This is indicative of continued GDP growth.  Retail […]

 

Initial Jobless at 2 month High but still Are Low.

Jobless Claims (week ended 9/6/2014) – Initial Claims (seasonally adjusted) 315,000. Previous was 304,000 – Initial Claims (unadjusted) were 234,403, a decrease of 15,377 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted)  304,000.  Previous was 302,250. While Initial Jobless Claims are moving up and at a 2 month high they are still low.

 

Mortgage Applications and Wholesale Inventories Weak.

MBA Purchase Applications (week ended 9/5/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, -1.0%. +0.2%, +0.3%, -8.0%, +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, and -5.2%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -11.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -0.1%, +0.4%, +0.1%, and -1.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -7.2%. Previous weeks were […]

 

Job Openings Plateau but Still Strong.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 9/6/2014) – Store Sales week/week +0.7%. Previous was +0.0% – Store Sales year/year +4.0%. Previous was +4.8%   Redbook (week ended 9/6/2014) – Store Sales year/year +4.9%. Previous was +4.9%.   JOLTS  (July 2014) JOLTS is an acronym for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey – Job Openings 4,673,000. Previous […]

 

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 […]

 

Another Disappointing Jobs Report.

BLS Employment Situation Report (August 2014) – Non-farm Jobs +142,000. Previous was 212,000 – Unemployment Rate 6.2%. Previous was 6.1% – Labor Participation Rate 62.8%.  Previous was 62.9%.  64,000 people left the Labor Force – Part-time Jobs were -234,000 – Average Earnings were $24.53 up from $24.47  

 
 
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