Inflation Contained.

Personal Income and Outlays (July 2015)

- Personal Income month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%.
- Consumer Spending  month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.3%
- PCE Price Index month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- Core PCE price index  month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%
- PCE Price Index year/year  +0.3%. Previous was +0.3%
- Core PCE price index year/year  +1.2%. Previous was +1.3%.

What we have is contained inflation and modest increases in Personal Income and Outlays.

 

 

Consumer Sentiment  (August 2015)

- Sentiment Index  91.9. Previous was 92.9.

This is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.  This is supposed to be a leading indicator of Consumer Spending.
 

2ndQ2015 GDP Revised to +3.7%

GDP (2ndQ2015) – Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +3.7%. Previous estimate was +2.3%. Previous quarter was +0.6% – GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.1%. Previous was revised down from +2.0% to +0.1%.   Jobless Claims (week ended 8/22/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 271,000. Previous was 277,000 – New Claims, unadjusted, totaled […]

 

DGO Gains Modest.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/21/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%, +0.8%, -0.1%, +1.0%, -8.0%, +7.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%. -4.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, and +1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, +3.0%, +6.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, +7.0%, and -12.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +0.2%. […]

 

Home Sales and Prices up in Sane Manner.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/22/2015) – Store Sales year/year +1.7%. Previous was +1.6%   FHFA House Price Index (June 2015) – month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.5% – year/year   +5.6%. Previous was +5.7%   S&P Case-Shiller HPI  (June 2015) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month -0.1%.  Previous was -0.1% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month […]

 

Fundamentals May See Irrelevant but..

Chicago Federal National Activity Index (July 2015) – Level +0.34. Previous was -0.07 – 3 Month Moving Average  +0.00. Previous was  -0.08. This is a weighted index using 85 different components.

 

Stronger US$ Hurting Exports?

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (August 2015) – Level  52.9. Previous was 53.8. We may be seeing the negative effect that the stronger US $ is having on exports.

 

Existing Home Sales at 8 year High.

Jobless Claims (week ended 8/15/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted  277,000. Previous was 273,000 – New Claims  unadjusted 229,674  a decrease of 9,652 from previous – 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted   271,500. Previous was 266,000 Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey  (August 2015) – General Business Conditions Index  8.3. Previous was 5.7   Existing Home […]

 

Inflation Contained.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/14/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +3.0%, +0.8%, -0.1%, +1.0%, -8.0%, +7.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%. -4.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, and -4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, +6.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, +7.0%, -12.0%, and -4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +3.6%. […]

 

Single Family Housing Starts Stagnant.

Housing Starts  (July 2015) – Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized   1,206,000. Previous was 1,204,000 – Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized  1,119,000. Previous was 1,337,000. Housing Starts are in units. Single family housing starts are up only 1.1% year on year. Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/15/2015) – Chain Store Sales year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.9%.

 

Homebuilders Confident.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (August 2015) – General Business Conditions Index -14.92.  Previous was +2.86.  This is the worst reading since April 2009. This is a piece of data which is a relic of when New York State was important to manufacturing. Housing Market Index (August 2015) – Housing Market Index 61.  Previous was 60. […]

 
 
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