GDP +3.5% 3rdQ2014.

GDP 3rdQ2014 First Estimate

- Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted/annualized 3.5%. Previous quarter was +4.6%
- GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted/annualized.  +1.3%. Previous quarter was +2.1%

This initial estimate has only 2 of 3 months data for all but the consumer spending and usually sees large adjustments.  3.5% growth is good but still a bit less than what we need to generate the money government spends.

 

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/25/2014)

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  287,000. Previous was 284,000
- New Claims unadjusted were 270,238 an increase of 14,187 from the previous week
- 4-week Moving Average 281,000. Previous was 281,250.
 

Unintended Consequences.

MBA Applications (week ended 10/24/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, +0.0%, -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were +23.0%, +11.0%, +5.0%, -0.3%, -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, and -4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -6.6%. Previous weeks were +11.6%, […]

 

Flatter Home Prices.

S&P Case-Shiller HPI (August 2014) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  -0.1%. Previous was -0.5% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.6% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year  +5.6%. Previous was +6.7%. While flat home prices may cause trouble for folks in the real estate or mortgage business, they help make homes affordable. […]

 

Flat Fundamentals.

PMI Services Flash (October 2014) – Index Level  57.3. Previous was 58.0. Any value above 50 represents growth.   Pending Home Sales Index (September 2014) – Pending Home Sales Index  105.0. Previous was 104.7 This represents existing homes in contract for sale.   Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (October 2014) – Business Activity Index  10.5. […]

 

Positive Fundamentals today.

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/18/2014) – New Claims 283,000. Previous was 266,000 – 4-week Moving Average 281,000. Previous was 284,000. This is still low.   Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (September 2014) – Level     0.47. Previous was -0.25 – 3 Month Moving Average  0.25. Previous was 0.16. Both Employment and Production showed strength.   […]

 

Existing Home Sales Recover.

Existing Home Sales (September 2014) – Existing Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 5,170,000.  Previous was 5,050,000. – Existing Home Sales -year/year -1.7%. Most of the month/month gain is a recovery of the previous loss.   ICSC-Goldman Store Sales  (week ended 10/18/2014) – Store Sales week/week  -0.3%. Previous was -0.7% – Store Sales year/year  +2.1%. Previous […]

 

Jobless Claims at 14-year Low.

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/11/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 264,000. Previous was 287,000 – New Claims  totaled 271,590  an increase of 14,031 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average   283,500.   Industrial Production (September 2014) – Production month/month +1.0%. Previous was -0.2% – Capacity Utilization Rate 79.3%. Previous was 78.7% – Manufacturing month/month +0.5%. […]

 

Fundamentals Mixed. Volatility Enormous.

PPI-FD (September 2014) This measures inflation at the wholesale level. PPI-FD month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.0 PPI-FD year/year  +1.6%. Previous was +1.8% PPI-FD less food & energy month/month  0.0%. Previous was +0.1% PPI-FD less food & energy year/year    +1.8%. Previous was +1.6% PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month   -0.1%. Previous was  +0.2% PPI-FD […]

 

10-year Treasury Hits Forecast

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 10/11/2014) – Store Sales week/week  -0.7%. Previous was +0.1% – Store Sales year/year  +3.8%. Previous was +3.9%.   Redbook (week ended 10/11/2014) – Store Sales year/year  +3.8%. Previous was +5.4%.   NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (September 2014) – Optimism level 95.3.  Previous was 96.1. This is a survey of […]

 

Import/Export Prices down year/year

Import and Export Prices (September 2014) – Export Prices month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.5% – Export Prices year/year   -0.2%. Previous was +0.4% – Import Prices month/month -0.5%. Previous was -0.9% – Import Prices year/year  -0.9%. Previous was -0.4%. I find most important the fact that import and export prices have declined year on year.  Import […]

 
 
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