This evening’s Originations linkfest … note: the WSJ story on investors’ rate outlook is on long-duration Treasuries which are a benchmark for U.S. rates, but mortgage rates come from mortgage bonds (MBS), not Treasuries. But the indecision is similar on MBS.

Rates dropped .125% last week continuing an unpredictable three-week down trend. The first catalyst was awful GDP data two Fridays ago, then last Friday began with a questionable jobs report and ended with S&P downgrading the U.S.

Before the S&P downgrade last Friday, I wrote the following about the debt deal: I have said little about the default possibility simply because I estimated the possibility at near-zero. From my point-of-view what happened was an enormous and bogus media campaign getting people worked up about something an then an illusion that something had [...]

Here we are after S&P’s U.S. downgrade (here’s my take) and stocks are down again and the bond market is rallying. Markets set rates, not rating agencies, and it would seem that money is flowing into bullion and into the bond market, as many expected would happen. Perhaps the United States really is still viewed [...]

Here’s an S&P downgrade/U.S. budget edition of my Originations linkfest, complete with an epic photoshop from my boy h1ghway. Background for the less pop culturally obsessed: the pimp who sets Idiocracy’s nation-in-decline plot in motion is named Upgrayedd—pronounced ‘upgrade’ but “spelled with two Ds for a double-dose of his pimping.”

Remember being glued to your computer or TV in Fall 2008 trying to figure out what was next in the market meltdown? The debt ceiling circus in DC and S&P’s subsequent U.S. downgrade have captured consumers’ attention in a similar way. But this topic is much more complicated and consumers mostly get information in two [...]

After parts 1 and 2 on the rate impact of S&P’s downgrade, here are a few new comments before Asian markets open. We’ll continue to discuss rate impacts as this situation plays out.

Friday night, I hear of the S&P downgrade and barely start taking notes when my almost-three-year-old barrels between me and my laptop/notepad, takes my pen, looks at what I’ve written and says: “A – A – A. I’m gonna draw a picture. [then, after drawing what you see below] See the picture I drew? It’s [...]

Rates dropped .125% last week after a string of bad economic reports. Rates touched all-time lows momentarily Thursday after a six-day mortgage bond rally, then retreated (but held 2011 lows) after a less bad July jobs report Friday. After Friday’s close, S&P downgraded U.S. debt one notch from AAA to AA+ with the promise of [...]

Abnormal Returns masterfully curates the financial media maze daily, and today’s S&P downgrade linkfest is no exception. It’s a broad topic and these links cover the market outlook as well as the political chatter. More on the consumer rate angles coming here on The Basis Point shortly…