Fundamentals Mixed with no Clear Signs.

Durable Goods Orders (April 2015)

– New Orders month/month  -0.5%. Previous was +5.1%.
– Ex-transportation month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.6%.

DGO have been weak lately.  The gains in ex-trans for 2 months is a sign of hope.

 
FHFA House Price Index (March 2015)

– month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.6%.
– year/year  +5.2%. Previous was +5.3%.

These are prices for homes purchased with conforming loans.  This data does not accurately represent what is happening because a lot of homes are purchased with all cash and in places such as the San Francisco Bay Area many buyers need Jumbo loans.

 

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (March 2015)

– 20-city, seasonally adjusted, month/month +1.0%. Previous was +1.2%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted, month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.5%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +5.0%. Previous was +5.0%.

These are prices for home in 20 specific metropolitan areas.  Prices move so differently from one of these to another so as to make sense only on a macroeconomic level.  Increasing prices encourage Housing Starts which are still well below where they should be.

 
PMI Services Flash (May 2015)

– Level   56.4. Previous was 57.8.

 
New Home Sales (April 2015)

– New Home Sales Seasonally adjusted, annualized 517,000. Previous was 484,000.

Some of this gain is due to weather related delays from the previous months. The only conclusion I would draw is that things are not getting worse.

 
Consumer Confidence (May 2015)

– Consumer Confidence  95.4. Previous was 94.3.

This is the metric from The Conference Board.  It is supposed to forecast Consumer Spending.

 
Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (May 2015)

– level change +3. Previous was -3.

This is a regional survey index.

 

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (May 2015)

– Business Activity Index -20.8. Previous was -16.0
– Production Index -13.5. Previous was  -4.7.

The home of the oil industry is Dallas. Last week there were 373 operating oil rigs in Texas.  A year previous there were 889.  This is a consequence of lower crude prices.