Below are snapshots (with links) of five big data points markets are trading on today. U.S. rate markets—aka mortgage bond markets—are taking four of them as non-threatening: flat U.S. retail sales, weak Eurozone economic growth, less-than-expected Chinese inflation, and despite higher UK inflation, markets are shrugging it off. For now, markets are also ignoring the [...]

China’s NBS site delivering “Server Too Busy” errors right now. Reminiscent of early crisis days when S&P servers started crashing on Case Shiller Home price release days. Anyway, consumer prices came in at +4.9% versus expectations of +5.3% and last month’s year-over-reading of 4.6%. And producer prices came in at +6.6% versus expectations of 6.4% [...]

Rates closed Friday 2/11 net even on the week, a nice break (despite wild daily swings) after rising .375% the week before. Rates could resume their rise this week in response to inflation reports from the U.S., China, and Great Britain. Inflation worries may cause investors to continue selling bonds, and home loan rates rise [...]

Below is a snapshot of U.S. data for the week. There are also key inflation reports from China and Great Britain. Here’s what it all means.

Before presenting rate predictions for 2011, it’s worth noting that all forecasts are subject to the whims of highly volatile rate markets. What follows is an explanation of how rate markets work, how rates have behaved since the financial crisis began in 2007, then the outlook for this year.

This installment of bTunes is Brooklyn rap for the best finance blogger on the web. As the Talib Kweli gospel goes: “you gotta do, fuck that almost shit.” This perfectly defines the reformed broker Josh Brown and his command of the zeitgeist, whether arcane financial or inane pop cultural. The man is just as good [...]

The rate climb discussed in recent weeks continues with Conforming 30yr fixed rates .75% higher than all-time lows October 7-8. This means a $184/mo higher mortgage payment for a loan of $417,000, and $323/mo higher for a loan of $729,750. Rates for Jumbo loans above $729,750 are only up .25% because these loans are not [...]

Consumer inflation in China increased 5.1% from November 2009 to November 2010, and business inflation increased 6.1% for the same period. Food prices were a major inflationary factor, increasing 11.7%. Below are excerpts on consumer and business inflation from China’s full report, which some say is of questionable credibility. Still, this may cause China to [...]

Mortgage bonds are down about 140 basis points as of 11:50am PT, which is worse than an already bad day until now. Rates were already up about .25% today alone, and if this latest drop holds rates could go up a bit more—rates drop when bond prices drop in a selloff; lenders watch mortgage bonds [...]

Three weeks ago, this report said “perhaps it’s early to ring alarm bells when rates are still in the 4s” but here’s an update: December 3 rates were .625% higher than they were October 8, which means a borrower pays $184 more per month on a $500,000 loan. Consider the alarm bell sounded. Here’s why…