Stats, charts, comments on: latest jobs, housing, inflation, manufacturing releases.

Lack of inflation helps bonds today, keeping rates at record lows to end week.

Stats: CPI, industrial production, mortgage apps, homebuilder activity

Inflation (September 2011) – CPI – Month/Month (overall) +0.3% – CPI – Year/Year (overall) +3.9% – CPI – Month/Month (core) +0.1% – CPI – Year/Year (core) +2.0%. -There are several stories behind this data. The first is that the only lasting effect of QE II was inflation of commodity prices. The second may be that [...]

Huge news day with all key data summarized (including charts) in today’s Fundamentals report. Despite rising jobless claims and contracting manufacturing activity, rates are up today for 3 main reasons: (1) Consumer inflation is higher. Rates rise when mortgage bonds sell, and they’re selling today partly because consumer inflation is higher. Inflation makes the future [...]

Initial Jobless Claims -428,000 for the week ended September 10 -Up 11,000 from previous week’s revised 417,000 (was 414k) -4-week moving average 419,500, up 4,000 from previous week -Rising trend continues Consumer Inflation, August -CPI Month/Month +0.4% -CPI Year/Year +3.8% -CPI core (less food & energy) Month/Month +0.2% -CPI core (less food & energy) – [...]

Consumer Inflation -CPI Month/Month: +0.5% -CPI Year/Year: +3.6% -Core CPI Month/Month (less food & energy): +0.2% -Core CPI Year/Year (less food & energy): +1.8% -This retail inflation is always difficult to explain because while it is most certainly the overall number which affects everyone, it is core which is of interest to economists because core [...]

Consumer Sentiment -July sentiment 63.8, down from 71.5 in June -Lowest since March 2009 June Consumer Inflation -CPI Overall Month/Month: -0.2% -CPI Core (less food & energy) Month/Month: 0.3% -CPI Overall Year/Year: 3.6% -CPI Core (less food & energy) Year/Year: 1.6% -Today’s full report -Same story we already know: Core inflation is tame. -Overall gets [...]

Rates were down today as bonds rallied (FNMA 4% coupon +53 basis points) to regain most of yesterday’s sharp losses. The rally came as citizens clashed with police in Athens to protest a new round of income-reducing austerity measures, plus U.S. manufacturing and homebuilder data were resoundingly weak. This outweighed U.S. consumer inflation that some [...]

Consumer Inflation: CPI – Month/Month (overall) +0.2% CPI – Year/Year (overall) +3.6% CPI – Month/Month core (less food & energy) 0.3% CPI – Year/Year core (less food & energy) 1.5% Month/Month core is a tenth above “acceptable.” CPI details here. Mortgage Applications: Purchase Index – Week/Week Change 4.5 % Refinance Index – Week/Week Change 16.5 [...]