Same trend as previous quarters: 3Q growth slower than originally thought.
GDP
Same trend as previous quarters: 3Q growth slower than originally thought.
Eurozone The fact that some solution was reached regarding Greek debt is positive but: (1) there are four more countries to deal with and (2) the long term macroeconomic effects are still unknown. GDP -First of three 3Q2011 GDP was +2.5% -This was right at expectations -Previous quarter was +1.3% -Final Sales of domestic products
[By Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute] The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) third estimate of second quarter 2011 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reported to be 1.34%, an upward adjustment from their previous data. The new growth number was .36% higher than the number reported last month for the same quarter. It is
[By Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute] The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) third estimate of second quarter 2011 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reported to be 1.34%, an upward adjustment from their previous data. The new growth number was .36% higher than the number reported last month for the same quarter. It is
GDP To so-called “final” GDP for 2ndQ2011 was adjusted upward to +1.3%. The GDP Deflator (an index of inflation weighted by how much each item contributes to GDP) was +2.5%. Final sales of domestic products was +1.6%. Initial Jobless Claims -391,000 for the week ending September 24 -Down 37,000 from previous week’s revised 422,250 (was
The current extent of economic malaise has been greatly underestimated. I once again turn to Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute to explain. When we measure GDP we always adjust it for inflation. We want the economy to be growing because more good and services are purchased by comsumers, companies and the government not because the
Friday’s GDP report was weak. The fact that there will apparently not be an inflation-inducing QE3 should reinforce the call for lower Treasury yields. We may be moving to record low Treasury yields and mortgage rates, and this post is to follow a recent post exploring this possibility. It should be noted that mortgage rates
GDP -BEA’s second of three 2Q2011 GDP readings was revised down to 1% annualized. With BEA making so many discretionary adjustments it is getting difficult to gauge just how bad the economy is. If I were the suspicious sort I might be thinking that BEA saw +1.0% as a psychological barrier fearing much more serious
Rates dropped .125% last week continuing an unpredictable three-week down trend. The first catalyst was awful GDP data two Fridays ago, then last Friday began with a questionable jobs report and ended with S&P downgrading the U.S. This picture I took best describes last week’s stunning volatility. Net result: mortgage bonds up, rates down. But
Just over a year ago I discovered the Consumer Metrics Institute. What I liked about is was that it provided another way of measuring the economic health of the nation. Consumer Metrics recognizes that many “leading indicators” are simply useless. It focuses on the consumer and measures what the consumer is doing virtually in real
Construction Spending was +0.2% for June. Private residential spending was down. Private nonresidential and public construction spending were up. ISM Manufacturing Index for July was 50.9 vs. 55.3 for June and estimates of 54.3. Readings below 50 mean a contraction. The full report also shows inflation moderating. This continues the recent trend which was created
GDP -2Q2011 GDP at +1.3% vs. 0.4% for 1Q2010 (revised down from 1.9%) -This 1st of three readings worse than low expectations -Second revision August 26 –Full report here. -In light of fiscal and monetary policy, this report is dismal -The heart of this report is this sentence: “Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1 percent
GDP -2Q2011 GDP at +1.3% vs. 0.4% for 1Q2010 (revised down from 1.9%) -This 1st of three readings worse than low expectations -Second revision August 26 –Full report here. -In light of fiscal and monetary policy, this report is dismal -The heart of this report is this sentence: “Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1 percent
The highlight this week will be this Friday’s Advance 2Q2011 GDP, the first of three readings. GDP = C+I+G+(X-M) where C= Consumer Spending. I = Investments, G=Government Spending, X=eXports and M=iMports. The advance GDP has only 2 of 3 months data on G and I and can see substantial revision. The range of estimates for
Rates rose .125% last week, on target with last Sunday’s WeeklyBasis prediction that “rates should be even to up slightly.” As of Friday evening, there’s no budget deal in Washington so politicians will continue work on a budget compromise, which if it comes, will enable the debt ceiling to be raised. August 2 is when
Load More