Rates were down .25% last week, regaining much of the .375% rise of early-February. The North-African/Middle-Eastern uprising against dictators spread from Egypt to oil-producing Libya. Tensions grew last week as their leader Muammar Gaddafi fired repeatedly on his own citizens and made even crazier public statements than Charlie Sheen, the self-proclaimed man with fire-breathing fists. [...]

Like most economic stats, inflation seems simple: it’s a measure of how consumer or business prices are rising in an economy. But how inflation is measured then interpreted by markets is less simple. Most inflation reports in the press—often referred to as ‘headline inflation’—are total consumer or business inflation numbers. But lots of effort goes [...]

In light of today’s higher business inflation report, here’s a useful inflation reference tool from WSJ that I saw on ZeroHedge. But it should be noted that this is for consumer inflation, and business inflation is really the worry spot for bond and rate markets.

On Friday, a revolution and resulting chaos in Egypt caused U.S. rates (on 30yr fixed loans up to $417k) to drop .125% but Monday rates rose that amount, back to 4.875%, as mortgage bond traders re-focused on U.S. business inflation. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is one of many monthly manufacturing surveys done across the [...]

30-year fixed mortgage rates head into Christmas at about 5% for a single family home loan up to $417,000, and about .25% higher for larger loans and most condo loans. Bond markets close at 2:00 ET today and reopen Monday. While today’s inflation report was flat, mortgage bonds sold off and pushed rates higher on [...]

Rates are up today but it’s not because of today’s tame inflation data, it’s mostly because of a weak $29b auction of 7yr notes weighing on the mortgage bond market. As for the inflation report: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, was 0.2% in October and 1.3% year-over-year through [...]

Rates are flat today on tame inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, was 0.2% in August and 1.5% year-over-year through August. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index was 0.1% for August and 1.4% YOY through August. The Fed looks closely [...]

Rates are down this morning on continued fears of a double dip recession and the latest inflation report confirming tame prices. Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.2% in June and 1.5% year-over-year through June. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index was [...]

Rates continue their run down this morning on doubts about the economy and the latest inflation report confirming tame prices. Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were 0.2% in May and 1.9% year-over-year through May. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index was unchanged [...]

Rates are slightly better today following a key inflation report this morning. Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation, were unchanged in April and 2% year-over-year through April. Excluding volatile oil and food costs from the readings, “Core” PCE price index was 0.1% for April and 1.2% YOY through April. The [...]