GDP (4thQ2013) – Real (inflation adjusted) GDP Quarter/Quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +2.4%. – GDP deflator Quarter/Quarter +1.6%. Previous announcement was +1.3% The advanced estimate had been +3.2%. This moves this piece of data from mildly encouraging to mildly discouraging. It also shows just how poor the advanced estimate of GDP is. The problem is that
February 2014
Durable Goods Orders (January 2014) – New Orders Month/Month -1.0%. Previous was revised to -5.3%. – New Orders Year/Year +4.6%. Previous was -0.8% – Ex-transportation Month/Month +1.1%. Previous was revised to -1.9% – Ex-transportation Year/Year +1.2%. Previous was +2.7% While the headline is weak, the more important ex-trans shows growth. That, however, is by comparison
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/21/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +12.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, -6.0%, +1.0%, -4.0%, and -0.2%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -11.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -0.2%, +3.0%, -2.0%, +10.0%, +11.0%, +5.0%, -8.0%, +2.0%, -18.0%, and -0.2%. – Composite Index Week/Week -8.5%. Previous weeks were
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 2/22/2014) – Store Sales Week/Week -0.6%. Previous was +2.5% – Store Sales Year/Year +1.4 %. Previous was +2.1% Redbook Store Sales (week ended 2/22/2014) – Store Sales Year/Year +2.9%. Previous was +3.2%. These numbers are weak. FHFA House Price Index (December 2013) – Month/Month +0.8%. Previous was -0.1% – Year/Year
Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (January 2014) – Level -0.39. Previous was -0.03 Some of this is due to the harsh weather. Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (February 2014) – Business Activity Index 0. Previous was 3.8. This is from a monthly survey of manufacturers in Texas.
The Changing Nature of Work The first part of this is a rewrite of something I wrote almost 10 years ago. Since then the ogre of technology eating more jobs has further evidenced and I discuss this at the end. Looking at the monthly BLS Report without seeing what may be coming is a really
Existing Home Sales (January 2014) – Existing Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 4,620,000. Previous was 4,870,000. Sales are -5.1% both month/month and year/year. One of the continuing stores regarding Home Sales is that many are purchased with all cash. As mortgage qualifying has gotten tougher sellers are more likely to take a lower all cash
Existing Home Sales (January 2014) – Existing Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 4,620,000. Previous was 4,870,000. Sales are -5.1% both month/month and year/year. One of the continuing stores regarding Home Sales is that many are purchased with all cash. As mortgage qualifying has gotten tougher sellers are more likely to take a lower all cash
PPI – FD (January 2014) This is a new method of calculating PPI. “PPI – FD” mean Producer Price Index – Final Demand.” To make it simple, the new index includes services and construction and gives less weight to the traditional products. – PPI-FD Month/Month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – PPI-FD Year/Year +1.2% Previous was
Housing Market Index (February 2014) – Housing Market Index 46. Previous was 56. This index is from The National Association of Home Builders. The drop may be due mostly to the bad weather some parts of the country have had. There is likely more to this than weather. One factor is the tougher mortgage lending
A Contrarian View of Rates As anyone who has been reading these newsletter for years knows, I strongly believe in technical indicators as a way of forecasting where home loan rates are headed. Technical trading is done based not on fundamentals but solely on the math of price movements. If you tell someone you are
A Contrarian View of Rates As anyone who has been reading these newsletter for years knows, I strongly believe in technical indicators as a way of forecasting where home loan rates are headed. Technical trading is done based not on fundamentals but solely on the math of price movements. If you tell someone you are
Import and Export Prices (January 2014) – Export Prices Month/Month +0.2%. Previous was +0.4%. – Export Prices Year/Year -1.2%. Previous was -1.2%. – Import Prices Month/Month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1% – Import Prices Year/Year -1.5%. Previous was -1.5%. The Year/Year data could be indicating decreased world demand. Industrial Production (December 2013) – Production Month/Month -0.3%.
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/8/2014) – New Claims 339,000. Previous was 331,000 – 4-week Moving Average. 336,750. Previous was 333,250. This data indicates a flat jobs market. Retail Sales (January 2014) – Retail Sales Month/Month -0.4%. Previous was -0.1% – Retail Sales less autos Month/Month +0.0%. Previous was +0.3% – Less Autos & Gas
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/7/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +12.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, -6.0%, +1.0%, -4.0%, -0.2%, +6.0%, and -1.8%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -2.0%, +10.0%, +11.0%, +5.0%, -8.0%, +2.0%, -18.0%, -0.2%, +6.0%, and -4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 2/8/2014) – Store Sales week/week -0.3%. Previous was +0.3% – Store Sales year/year +2.3%. Previous was +0.0% Bad weather may be keeping some folks home. Redbook (week ended 2/8/2014) – Store Sales year/year +2.8%. Previous was +2.7% JOLTS (December 2013) – Job Openings 4,000,000. This is the Labor Department’s report
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