Industrial Production (May 2014) – Production month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.5% – Capacity Utilization Rate 78.1% Previous was 78.3% – Manufacturing month/month -0.2% Previous was +0.1% Slowing manufacturing is not good for the economy. On a longer time scale I do not believe that we have faced the likelihood that, in the future, as manufacturing
June 2015
Industrial Production (May 2014) – Production month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.5% – Capacity Utilization Rate 78.1% Previous was 78.3% – Manufacturing month/month -0.2% Previous was +0.1% Slowing manufacturing is not good for the economy. On a longer time scale I do not believe that we have faced the likelihood that, in the future, as manufacturing
PPI-FD (May 2015) – PPI-FD month/month +0.5%. Previous was -0.4% – PPI-FD year/year -1.1%. Previous was -1.3% – PPI-FD less food & energy month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – PPI-FD less food & energy year/year +0.6%. Previous was + 0.8% – PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.1% –
PPI-FD (May 2015) – PPI-FD month/month +0.5%. Previous was -0.4% – PPI-FD year/year -1.1%. Previous was -1.3% – PPI-FD less food & energy month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – PPI-FD less food & energy year/year +0.6%. Previous was + 0.8% – PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.1% –
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/6/2015) – Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 279,000. Previous was 277,000 – Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 274,880 an increase of 44,210 from previous – 4-week Moving Average 278,750. Previous was 275,000. Initial Jobless Claims remain low indicating a healthy jobs market. Retail Sales (May 2015) – Retail Sales month/month +1.2%.
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/6/2015) – Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 279,000. Previous was 277,000 – Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 274,880 an increase of 44,210 from previous – 4-week Moving Average 278,750. Previous was 275,000. Initial Jobless Claims remain low indicating a healthy jobs market. Retail Sales (May 2015) – Retail Sales month/month +1.2%.
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/5/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week +10.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +1.0%, -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, and +2.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were -12.0%, -4.0%, +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, and -5.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +8.4%. Previous
Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 6/6/2015) – Store Sales year/year +1.2%. Previous was +1.7% This is sluggish growth. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May 2015) – level 98.3. Previous was 96.9. Optimism of Small Business owners is important because small businesses grow into large businesses and small business are key to adding jobs.
Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.
Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.
BLS Employment Situation Report (May 2015) – Nonfarm Payrolls month/month +280,000 (nominal). With the changes to the previous 2 months the gain is 312,000 – Unemployment Rate 5.5%. Previous was 5.4% – Private Payrolls month/month 262,000. Previous was 213,000 – Participation Rate 62.9%. Previous was 62.8% – Average Hourly Earnings month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/30/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 276,000. Previous was 284,000 – New Claims unadjusted, totaled 230,055 a decrease of 23,399 from previous – 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 274,750. Previous was 272,000 Challenger Job-Cut Report (May 2015) – Announced Layoffs 41,034. Previous was 61,582 Productivity and Costs (1stQ2015)
What is happening in Venezuela is a reminder that the most important thing for a healthy economy is a stable currency. Venezuela increased its money supply by a factor of 4 in the past 2 years. The result has been an inflation rate which according to economist Steve Hanke is now 45% per month. Unstable
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/29/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, and -0.2%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -12.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, and -3.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -7.6%. Previous
Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 5/30/2015) – Chain Store sales year/year +1.7%. Previous was +1.6% Factory Orders (April 2015) – Factory Orders month/month -0.4%. Previous was +2.2%. Apart from a spike last September Factory Orders have been weak.
Personal Income and Outlays (April 2015) – Personal Income month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.0% – Consumer Spending month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.5% – PCE Price Index month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.2% – Core PCE price index month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1% – PCE Price Index year/year +0.1%. Previous was +0.3% – Core PCE price index
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