Don’t Blame Workers for Lower Productivity

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 5/30/2015)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 276,000. Previous was 284,000
– New Claims unadjusted, totaled 230,055 a decrease of 23,399 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  274,750. Previous was 272,000

 

Challenger Job-Cut Report (May 2015)

– Announced Layoffs  41,034. Previous was 61,582

 

Productivity and Costs (1stQ2015)

– Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted -3.1%.  Previous was -1.9%
– Unit labor costs quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted  +6.7%.  Previous was +5.0%.

Productivity is GDP/hours worked. Lower Productivity is a consequence of lower GDP.   Lower Productivity  is not a sign that workers are slacking bur rather is a consequence of the stronger dollar, a weakening world economy, and flat Consumer Spending.

This also relates to the words from Christine Lagarde of the IMF requesting that the Fed hold off on rate increases until 2016.  Rate increases here would strengthen the dollar and hurt U.S. GDP because of lower exports and also hurt the economy of the EU..

Gallup Payroll to Population (May 2015)

– level  44.5. Previous was 43.9.