Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/5/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 282,000. Previous was 269,000 – New Claims unadjusted, totaled 384,481 an increase of 121,853 from previous – 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 270,750. Previous was 269,250 With the seasonal adjustment being so large it is difficult to interpret this data. Large seasonal adjustments are
December 2015
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/4/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week +0.04%. Previous weeks were +8.0%, -1.0%, +12.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +16.0%, -34.0%, +27.0%, -6.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, -5.0%, +2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, +9.0%, -23.0%, +24.0%, -8.0%, +18.0%, and -9.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +1.2%. Previous
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (November 2015) – level 94.8. Previous was 96.1 This decline may be anticipating a weaker Christmas shopping season. Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 12/5/2015) – Chain Store Sales year/year +1.9%. Previous was +3.9%. This could be do to more aggressive that last year discounting in the previous
December 7, 2015 Labor Market Conditions Index (November 2015) – Level 0.5. Previous was 2.2 . This is an unofficial index from the research people at the Fed. The LMCI based on 19 labor market indicators with unemployment rate and private payrolls being the most important. LMCI has been modest this year being under 2
This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000
Challenger Job-Cut Report (November 2015) – Announced layoffs 30,953. Previous was 50,504. The lower number is good for the jobs market in general but a look inside shows that layoffs increased in Industrial Goods Production and Energy. Industrial Goods are lower because of a strong dollar which translates into less exports and a weakening world
MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/27/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week +8.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +12.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +16.0%, -34.0%, +27.0%, -6.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, and +4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -6.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, +9.0%, -23.0%, +24.0%, -8.0%, +18.0%, -9.0%, and -10.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous
Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/28/2015) – Chain Store Sale year/year +3.9%. Previous was +1.5%. Since we are entering the Christmas shopping season any data about retail sales will be analyzed like the Super Bowl. Were sales up for the week because prices were discounted? Is the data less meaningful because it only uses