Chain Store Sales up. Manufacturing Contracting.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/28/2015)

– Chain Store Sale year/year  +3.9%. Previous was +1.5%.

Since we are entering the Christmas shopping season any data about retail sales will be analyzed like the Super Bowl.  Were sales up for the week because prices were discounted? Is the data less meaningful because it only uses same store sales eliminating closed outlets.

 

PMI Manufacturing Index  (November 2015)

– Index Level   52.8. Previous was 54.1

 

ISM Manufacturing Index (November 2015)

–  Index level   48.6. Previous was 50.1.

ISM is at the lowest level since June 2009.  While manufacturing may be hurting more than other sectors the story that the economy is doing just fine is going to be a tougher sell.

Enormous increases in money supply and rock bottom interest rates have failed to increase GDP by more than 2%.

 

Construction Spending (October 2015)

– Construction Spending month/month  +1.0%. Previous was +0.6%.
– Construction Spending year/year   +13.0%. Previous was +14.1%.

Despite my misgivings about the economy in general construction spending remains strong.  Construction Spending turns like an aircraft carrier. It takes a long time to respond because it involves months and years of planning, permits, and financing.