Jobs Remain Strong but…

Challenger Job-Cut Report (November 2015)

– Announced layoffs 30,953. Previous was 50,504.

The lower number is good for the jobs market in general but a look inside shows that layoffs increased in Industrial Goods Production and Energy. Industrial Goods are lower because of a

strong dollar which translates into less exports and a weakening world economy. Energy continues to hurt as oil prices remain low.

Jobless Claims (week ended 11/28/2015)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted,  269,000. Previous was 260,000
– New Claims unadjusted, totaled 262,796 a decrease of 42,628 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average   269,250. Previous was 271,000.

Initial Jobless Claims remain low.  The issue with jobs is that while the unemployment rate remain low so does the Labor Participation Rate.  The fact is that there are a lot of Job Openings but there are not the skilled people to fill them.

 

PMI Services Index  (November 2015)

– Index level  56.1. Previous was 54.8.

This is a metric of the supply side of the Service Sector.  It shows strength unlike the manufacturing part of the economy.  The weakening of the world economy hurts manufacturing more than it does services and is indicative of the fact that the U.S. economy being so strong in services will be less impacted that the economies of good and energy producing nations which have been hit by falling commodity prices and the strong US dollar.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (November 2015)

– Composite Index  55.9. Previous was 59.1

Combined with the PMI metric this represents a mixed message.  However both indicate growth.

Factory Orders (October 2015)

– Factory Orders month/month  +1.5%. Previous was -0.8%.

This is a welcomed gain in a metric which has been disappointing for about a year. Let’s see if the gain can hold.