4thQ GDP Weak. Consumer Spending up in January.

GDP (4thQ2015)

– Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +1.0%. Previous release was +0.7%
– GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized+0.9%.

A modest improvement to a very weak GDP is still a very weak GDP.  Coming after an enormous increase in money supply and near-zero rates this remains a recovery at about half the pace of previous recoveries.

 

International Trade (Goods)

– Trade Deficit of goods Balance  $-62.2 billion.
– Exports -2.9%
– Imports -1.5%

Declining imports and imports are a sign of weakness in the world economy and lower oil prices.

 
Personal Income and Outlays  (January 2016)

– Personal Income month/month  +0.5%
– Consumer Spending month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.1%
– PCE Price Index month/month  +0.1%
– Core PCE price index month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
– PCE Price Index year/year    +1.3%
– Core PCE price index year/year +1.7%

The increase in Consumer Spending, if it does not fall back, is an indication of improvement in 1stQ 2016 GDP

 
Consumer Sentiment  (February 2016)

– Sentiment Index  91.7. Previous was 92.0.

This is the University of Michigan Index.  It is supposed to forecast Consumer Spending in the next 3-6 months.