Another Weak Quarter of GDP Growth.

GDP (1stQ2015)

– Real (inflation adjusted) GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.2%. Previous was +2.2%.
– GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized -0.1%. Previous was +0.1%.
Consumer Spending was +1.9% and that is the most important part of GDP.  That also means that the story that this was about bad weather is inaccurate.  GDP is down because 1) energy prices were lower 2) the dollar was stronger holding back exports 3) state and local government spending was lower and 4) business investments were lower.

This pathetic growth comes after a weak (+2.2% 4thQ2014) meaning that we have 2 weak quarters after 2 good quarters +4.6% and +5% (2nd and 3rd Q 2014.)  Those 2 good quarters happened after a quarter of contraction -2.1% for 1stQ2014.  If we look at the past 12 quarters the average growth rate is +2.13% annualized.

This slow growth is despite massive injections of money by the Fed.  In order to sustain debt we need GDP growth to be 4.0% about twice what it has been.  We need to get real and face the fact that growth is half what it needs to be.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/24/2014)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +0.0%. Previous weeks were  +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, and -0.1%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, and +3.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week -2.3%. Previous weeks were +2.3%, -2.3%., +0.4%, +4.6%, +9.5%, -3.9%, -1.3%, -1.3%, +0.1%, -8.0%. -13.2%, -9.0%, and +1.3%.

Pending Home Sales Index  (March 2015)

– Pending Home Sales Index  108.6. Previous was 107.4

Pending Home Sales have increased for 3 consecutive months.