Core Inflation Contained. Gas Price Inflated Retail Weak. Manufacturing Weak.

CPI (Retail Level Inflation) August 2012

CPI core (less food & energy) Month/Month  0.1%
CPI less food & energy  Year/Year  1.7%
CPI – Month/Month  0.6%
CPI – Year/Year +1.7%

Core CPI is contained.  Overall reflects higher gasoline and food prices and those increases are weather related and will correct.

Retail Sales (August 2012)

Retail Sales – Month/Month  0.9%
Retail Sales less autos – Month/Month 0.8%
Less Autos & Gas – Month/Month 0.1%

Retail Sales data is neither seasonally adjusted not inflation adjusted.  These are nominal dollars.  While a +0.9% Month/Month increase looks good it is made up almost entirely of higher gasoline prices.  Higher gas prices hurt GDP.

Industrial Production (August 2012)

Production – Month/Month -1.2%
Capacity Utilization Rate –  78.2%
Manufacturing – Month/Month -0.7%

This is weak data and indicative of something other than growth.  One might speculate that this could represent the leading edge of worldwide recession.