CPI (Retail Level Inflation) August 2012
CPI core (less food & energy) Month/Month 0.1%
CPI less food & energy Year/Year 1.7%
CPI – Month/Month 0.6%
CPI – Year/Year +1.7%
Core CPI is contained. Overall reflects higher gasoline and food prices and those increases are weather related and will correct.
Retail Sales (August 2012)
Retail Sales – Month/Month 0.9%
Retail Sales less autos – Month/Month 0.8%
Less Autos & Gas – Month/Month 0.1%
Retail Sales data is neither seasonally adjusted not inflation adjusted. These are nominal dollars. While a +0.9% Month/Month increase looks good it is made up almost entirely of higher gasoline prices. Higher gas prices hurt GDP.
Industrial Production (August 2012)
Production – Month/Month -1.2%
Capacity Utilization Rate – 78.2%
Manufacturing – Month/Month -0.7%
This is weak data and indicative of something other than growth. One might speculate that this could represent the leading edge of worldwide recession.