Data Less than Rosy as Fed Hikes.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/12/2015)

– Initial Claims (seasonally adjusted)  271,000. Previous was 282,000
– Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 312,632  a decrease of 71,859 from previous week
– 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted)  270,500. Previous was 270,750

In is a bit difficult to read Jobless Claims data during the Christmas shopping season because of the size of the seasonal adjustments.  It becomes difficult to know if we are measuring the data or the accuracy of the adjustments.

 
Philadelphia Federal Business Outlook Survey (December 2015)

– General Business Conditions Index -5.9. Previous was 1.9.

This is a survey index takes by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve of manufacturing businesses within its jurisdiction.  This report is very weak and is the third loss in the past four

months.  The stronger dollar had reduced demand for U.S. exports. This problem is not going to be helped by the move of the FOMC.

 

Current Account (3rdQ2015)

– Current Account  $-124.1 billion.  Previous was -$111.1 billion.

To repeat:  the stronger US$ is hurting exports, increasing the Current Account and Trade Deficits and GDP.  Higher rates here could make the problem worse.

 
Leading Economic Indicators (November 2015)

– Leading Indicators month/month  +0.4%. Previous was +0.6%.

LEI are supposed to indicate economic growth in the next 3 months.  This index had been flat for 3 months and now has increased in October and November.