Fundamentals 11/4: Unemployment Down By Year-End?

BLS Jobs
– Non-Farm jobs for October were +80,000.
– Unemployment rate was 9.0%. Down from 9.1%
– Average workweek was 34.3 hours – unchanged
– Average Hourly Earnings was +0.2%.
-Details: Private Jobs were +104,000. Public Jobs were -24,000. This will continue as state and local government continue to shed weight.

I want to note once again that at the end of this year we are likely to see a drop in the unemployment rate as the 99 weeks of unemployment benefits expires and people drop out of the workforce.

Also note that the number of people working is determined by accurate data from real companies. The number of people in the labor force is determined by Household Survey and people’s description of their labor status. For example, this months Household Survey had 70,000 few people working part time who were looking for full time work.

Rather that look at the defective unemployment rate, what we should be observing is the labor participation rate. Read this article by Alan Krueger . Alan has been nominated to head Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors.

However you want to slice, dice, parse or spin it the fact is that this is an extremely poor jobs performance for an economy which is in the 10th quarter of recovery from the “Great Recession.”