Jobless Claims down Slightly. Manufacturing Continues to Contract.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended February 13, 2016)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 262,000. Previous was 269,000
– New Claims totaled 258,264 a decrease of 32,227 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average  273,250. Previous was 281,250

A very modest improvement and a continuing part of the story that while this recovery has produced jobs the effect on GDP has been minimal because the jobs produced in this recovery are low paying jobs which produce little GDP.

 
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey (February 2016)

– General Business Conditions Index -2.8. Previous was -3.5

This is a diffusion index which takes into account data on manufacturing in the region covered by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.  Much like the Empire State Index it shows manufacturing declining in the NE.

 

 

Leading Indicators (January 2016)

– Leading Indicators month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.3%.
This is a composite index of 10 economic indicators and is produced by The Conference Board.

It is supposed to predict changes in economic activity 3-6 months from now.  In the past few years this has overestimated growth because it placed so much emphasis on Money Supply at a time when Money Supply increased but did little to contribute to growth.  The low correlation between Money Supply and GDP growth was likely because the Fed continues to pay interest on excess reserves.

The negative reading in December and January is, to a significant extent, the result of hits to equities.