Retail Growth up. Inventory Growth down.

Retail Sales (December 2013)

– Retail Sales Month/Month +0.2%. Previous was +0.7%
– Retail Sales less Autos Month/Month +0.7%. Previous was +0.4%
– Less Autos & Gas Month/Month +0.6%. Previous was +0.6%

The +0.7% gain less autos shows strength.  The purchase of cars which are big-ticket items has been has been making the headline less significant.  Presumably, we saw an increase in auto purchases this year as a consequence of folks having delayed auto purchases. Eventually this effect will subside and looking at the “less autos” data makes most sense.

This is indicative of stronger consumer spending in 4thQ2013. While consumer spending is the main driver of the economy it had been inventory growth which produced a significant part of the gain in GDP in 3rdQ2013.

 
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 

– Store Sales Week/Week -1.0%. Previous was -5.4%
– Store Sales Year/Year +1.3%. Previous was +1.7%

 
Redbook (week ended 1/11/2014)

– Store Sales Year/Year +2.9%. Previous was +4.1%.

These dips could be cold weather related.

 
Import and Export Prices (December 2013)

– Export Prices Month/Month +0.4%. Previous was +0.1%
– Export Prices Year/Year   -1.0%. Previous was -1.6%
– Import Prices Month/Month +0.0%. Previous was -0.6%
– Import Prices Year/Year   -1.3%. Previous was -1.5%

These numbers have been indicating flat economic growth in the world economy.

 
Business Inventories (November 2013)

– Inventories +0.4%. Previous was +0.8%.
This is the “I” part of GDP = C+I+G+(X-M).  This is growth in purchasing on the wholesale level. This has been running ahead of consumer spending lately.  This is not uncommon in periods of growth. Today we see consumer spending (Retail Sales) increasing in growth and Inventories decreasing in growth.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (December 2013)

– Index level 93.9.  Previous was 92.5

This is a survey index taken every month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) asking 10 different questions.