THE BASIS POINT

Sharp Drop in Consumer Spending May not be all about Sandy

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (October 2012)

– composite Index 54.2. Previous was 55.1.  Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Consumer Metrics Institute Absolute Demand Index

Not surprisingly Sandy has taken a big bite out of consumer spending. Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute provide a near real time measure of consumer spending.  Look at the top graph on this page:   http://www.consumerindexes.com/  Rick theorizes that the storm is not the only contributor to this drop in spending. A similar dip occurred in November 2008.  Elections are filled with so much negativity that it appears they cause people to stop shopping.  November 5, 2008 (the day after the election) was, according to Rick’s data, the bottom of the Great Recession.