Wait, there’s not a recession coming in 2023 now?
I like seeing headlines like today’s NYT story about a maybe-stronger-than-some-think economy. Not because I’m cognitively biased but because, while negative headlines sell, they leave out key details. This piece has some of those details:
– Mortgage rates are down 1% from late-October peak levels despite all the headlines about Fed rate increases. Why? Because mortgage rates drop when bond prices rise, and bond investors have been bidding up prices as they see the Fed’s inflation fight working
– Social security recipients just received a meaningful cost of living adjustment on their first check of 2023, perhaps enabling more spending among older Americans. Let the $2 bills rain down on grandchildren!
– And of course unemployment is at a 54 year low. That’s just really hard to dispute. As Treasury Chief told Good Morning America earlier this week (in response to a super strong January jobs report):
“You don’t have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years. What I see is a path in which inflation is declining significantly and the economy is remaining strong.”
Instead of economy cracking as Fed hikes rates to squash inflation, some data points show things are actually going well
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Check It Out:
– What Recession? Some Economists See Chances of a Growth Rebound.