Consumer Metrics

Elections Breed Uncertainty.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 11/10/2012) Store Sales – Week/Week +0.7%. Previous was -0.2% Store Sales – Year/Year 1.8%. Previous was 1.4% Redbook Store Sales Year/Year +1.6%. Previous was +0.8%. Consumer Metrics Institute This near realtime measure of consumer demand started moving upward two days after the election.  This same effect – pre-election slump and

Sharp Drop in Consumer Spending May not be all about Sandy

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (October 2012) – composite Index 54.2. Previous was 55.1.  Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. Consumer Metrics Institute Absolute Demand Index Not surprisingly Sandy has taken a big bite out of consumer spending. Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute provide a near real time measure of consumer spending.  Look at the top

Fundamentals 10/12: Mortgage Apps, Consumer Outlook

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ending 10/7) -Purchase Index +1.3% -Refinance Index +1.3% -Composite Index +1.3% Consumer Metrics This is an analysis by Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics. Rick uses on-line spending as a leading indicator. “We continue to analyze our data in an effort to understand what recent on-line consumer behavior can tell us about

Fundamentals 9/8: Jobless Claims Creeping Up

Initial Jobless Claims -414,000 for week ended September 3 -Up 2,000 from previous week’s revised 412,000 (was 409k) -4-week Moving Average 414,750, up 3750 from previous week -Going the wrong way. Chart below Trade Balance (July) Trade Balance for July was -$44.9 billion. The is the (X-M) component of GDP. The Trade deficit was smaller

Fundamentals 8/25: Jobless Claims Up, Consumer Spending Down

First, let’s note that tomorrow has potential for significant volatility. The two key things are (1) revised 2Q GDP and (2) Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech which is being viewed as QE3 Yes/No. Initial Jobless Claims -417,000 for week ended August 20 -Up 5,000 from previous week’s revised 412,000 -4-week Moving Average 402,500, up 4,000 from

Fundamentals 8/25: Jobless Claims Up, Consumer Spending Down

First, let’s note that tomorrow has potential for significant volatility. The two key things are (1) revised 2Q GDP and (2) Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech which is being viewed as QE3 Yes/No. Initial Jobless Claims -417,000 for week ended August 20 -Up 5,000 from previous week’s revised 412,000 -4-week Moving Average 402,500, up 4,000 from

Consumer Metrics’ Rick Davis Explains Just How Bad Economy Really Is

Just over a year ago I discovered the Consumer Metrics Institute. What I liked about is was that it provided another way of measuring the economic health of the nation. Consumer Metrics recognizes that many “leading indicators” are simply useless. It focuses on the consumer and measures what the consumer is doing virtually in real