Consumer Confidence -Consumer Confidence fell from 59.5 to 44.5 in August -This is a survey measurement of predisposition to spend -WSJ used the words “plummeted” and “plunge” -This is lowest Consumer Confidence since April 2009 -It’s in-line with the Consumer Metrics measurement of increased online discretionary spending in early July which flattened at the end
Retail Sales
Consumer Confidence -Consumer Confidence fell from 59.5 to 44.5 in August -This is a survey measurement of predisposition to spend -WSJ used the words “plummeted” and “plunge” -This is lowest Consumer Confidence since April 2009 -It’s in-line with the Consumer Metrics measurement of increased online discretionary spending in early July which flattened at the end
Retail Sales -ICSC-Goldman Same Store Sales Week/Week: -1.0% -ICSC-Goldman Same Store Sales Year/Year: 3.0% -Redbook Same Store Sales Year/Year: 3.6% -Redbook Previous was 4.7% -If consumer spending keeps slowing, we’ll have another recession Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -August index change: -10 (vs. -1 for July) –Full report -More evidence supply side was more confident than
Retail Sales: July’s Advance Estimates -Month/Month change: +0.5%. -Biggest rise in 4 months -Excluding Autos Month/Month change: +0.5% –Full report Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment -August Index 54.9 from 63.7 July -This is a massive drop, lowest level since May 1980 -Index averaged 89 in the five years before recession that began Dec 2007. What
Retail Sales: July’s Advance Estimates -Month/Month change: +0.5%. -Biggest rise in 4 months -Excluding Autos Month/Month change: +0.5% –Full report Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment -August Index 54.9 from 63.7 July -This is a massive drop, lowest level since May 1980 -Index averaged 89 in the five years before recession that began Dec 2007. What
Productivity and Costs -2Q2011 Worker Productivity (GDP/hour worked) down 0.3% (annualized) –Full report -2Q2011 unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses up 2.2% -Graph below: Worker Productivity (grey bars), Unit Labor Cost (solid blue line) Consumer Metrics This is presented here because the computerized nature of this makes it almost real time. This is a chart
Productivity and Costs -2Q2011 Worker Productivity (GDP/hour worked) down 0.3% (annualized) –Full report -2Q2011 unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses up 2.2% -Graph below: Worker Productivity (grey bars), Unit Labor Cost (solid blue line) Consumer Metrics This is presented here because the computerized nature of this makes it almost real time. This is a chart
Existing Home Sales -4.77m annual rate for June, down from 7.08m 2005 peak -Down 0.8% since May and down 8.8% since June 2010 -Median home price $184,300, up 0.8% from June 2010. -Distressed homes accounted for 30% of June sales -Inventory rose 3.3% to 3.77 million existing homes for sale -This is a 9.5-month supply
Housing -Housing Starts (annualized): 629k June vs. 549k May, highest since Jan. -Housing Permits (annualized): 624k June vs. 609k May -Homebuilder confidence flat in June (from 7/18) -Graphs below puts Starts/Permits in perspective -There must be 1.5m Housing Starts a year to keep pace with population growth assuming that the number of people per household
There are no important economic fundamentals today, but here’s this week’s outlook and there is an interesting indicator of consumer spending from Consumer Metrics. This is a measure of online shopping. Recently it shows a healthy recovery for the first time in 19 months. This difficulty (in part because this index is relatively new) is
There are no important economic fundamentals today, but here’s this week’s outlook and there is an interesting indicator of consumer spending from Consumer Metrics. This is a measure of online shopping. Recently it shows a healthy recovery for the first time in 19 months. This difficulty (in part because this index is relatively new) is
June Producer Inflation -Overall PPI Month/Month: -0.4% -Core PPI Month/Month: +0.3% -Overall PPI Year/Year: +7% -Core PPI Year/Year: +2.4% -Lower energy costs this month. This is also a time to remind that ‘Overall’ is a better macroeconomic indicator because it smooths out the volatility of energy and food prices. June Retail Sales -Overall Retail Sales
Retail Sales -ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Week/Week: +0.4% -ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Year/Year: +5.5% -Redbook Store Sales Year/Year: 5.4% Consumer Metrics Index of Online Retail Sales: “We are becoming more convinced with each passing week that the rate of contraction of on-line consumer demand for discretionary durable goods “bottomed” at the end of May 2011. The climb
MBA Mortgage Applications -Purchase Index: Week/Week +4.8% -Refinance Index: Week/Week -9.2% -Composite Index: Week/Week -5.2% -Rising Treasury and mortgage rates were responsible for refi dip. Retail Sales -ICSC-Goldman: week/week +1.5% -ICSC-Goldman: year/year +3.5% -Redbook: year/year +5.2% Economic Activity In Non-Manufacturing Sector –June ISM non-manufacturing index down to 53.3 vs 54.6 in May -Reading above 50
MBA Mortgage Applications -Purchase Index: Week/Week +4.8% -Refinance Index: Week/Week -9.2% -Composite Index: Week/Week -5.2% -Rising Treasury and mortgage rates were responsible for refi dip. Retail Sales -ICSC-Goldman: week/week +1.5% -ICSC-Goldman: year/year +3.5% -Redbook: year/year +5.2% Economic Activity In Non-Manufacturing Sector –June ISM non-manufacturing index down to 53.3 vs 54.6 in May -Reading above 50
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence as measured by the Conference Board fell to 58.5. This is a survey not hard data and all too often is associated with high visibility items such as gasoline prices. With Personal Spending flat (see comments of yesterday) and Final Sales of Domestic Products moved down to +0.6% (annualized) it certainly
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