THE BASIS POINT

Bank of America U.S. Economic Outlook 4 Months Into Coronavirus

It’s been 4 months since coronavirus got serious in the U.S. It’s felt more like a year, and we’ve had 47.7 million jobless claims from early March until last Thursday.

Needless to say, the NBER declared a recession earlier this month. Here’s a twitter thread for those interested in how recessions get declared.

BANK OF AMERICA BREAKDOWN OF CORONAVIRUS STIMULUS

Bank of America - Breakdown of Stimulus - The Basis Point

BANK OF AMERICA U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Below are a few key datasets on the economic outlook from Bank of America’s economics team as of this week. And here are a few highlights I think are worth calling out.

2020 & 2021 GDP

1Q 2020: -5%
2Q 2020: -35%
3Q 2020: +20%
4Q 2020: +6%

1Q 2021: +5%
2Q 2021: +5%
3Q 2021: +3%
4Q 2021: +3%

2020 & 2021 JOBS GROWTH (Avg MoM change, thousands)

1Q 2020: -303
2Q 2020: -4393
3Q 2020: +1333
4Q 2020: +467

1Q 2021: +367
2Q 2021: +267
3Q 2021: +200
4Q 2021: +200

And you can go here to track weekly jobless claims in real time.

2020 & 1Q 2021 10-YEAR NOTE

1Q 2020: 0.67%
2Q 2020: 0.50%
3Q 2020: 0.60%
4Q 2020: 1.00%

1Q 2021: 1.25%

Bank of America - US Economic Forecast - All - The Basis Point

Bank of America - Interest Rate Forecast - The Basis Point

BANK OF AMERICA GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Bank of America - Global Economic Forecast - The Basis Point

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Related:

Goldman Sachs U.S. Economic Outlook 4 Months Into Coronavirus

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